Best hero picks

• Erling Haaland (MCI, @BRE) – 0.75 goal probability; even away, City carry solid win odds (2.05). Safe pick.
• Ollie Watkins (AVL, vs BUR) – 0.55 goal probability; Villa have strong team outlook (≈44% clean sheet / projected goals 1.90).
• Bukayo Saka (ARS, vs WHU) – 0.40 goal & 0.41 assist probability; Arsenal top the slate (~54% clean sheet / projected goals 2.55).

Premium stacks (team + correlation)

• Arsenal vs WHU (H) – Highest team edge.
  Stack: Saka (0.40 g / 0.41 a) + Gyokeres (0.29 a). Add a defender and Rice if you want to target set pieces.
• Aston Villa vs BUR (H) – Very friendly home spot.
  Stack: Watkins (0.55 g) + Rogers (0.26 a).
• Man City @ BRE (A) – Lower % than Arsenal/Villa but Haaland’s ceiling is unmatched.
  Stack: Haaland (0.75 g) + Foden (0.30 a) / Doku (0.23 a).

Solid mid-tier plays

• Newcastle vs NFO (H) – Market likes them (1.90).
  Picks: Woltemadee (0.44 g) and Gordon (0.20 a).
• Brighton @ WOL (A) – Attack still rates well (1.70).
  Picks: Welbeck (0.30 g), Mitoma (0.21 a) - who is questionable, So Minteh is prolly the pick.
• Bournemouth vs FUL (H) – Sneaky attackable fixture (1.70).
  Pick: Semenyo (0.34 g / 0.22 a).

One-week differentials

• Bruno Fernandes (MUN, vs SUN) – 0.36 goal + 0.39 assist probability; strong all-rounder even if United aren’t top of the slate.

Liverpool/Chelsea note

• Fixture LIV @ CHE is tighter (LIV odds 1.75; CHE 1.50). Still viable elite one-offs:
  Mohamed Salah (0.44 g / 0.26 a) as a upside play with suspended & injured Chelsea defenders.

Fade/low-expectation zone

• West Ham @ ARS (0.65) and Brentford @ MCI (1.12): attacking returns less likely vs elite opposition—use only as contrarian darts.